Why we don't show a single “fair value” for TWLO
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($92.69) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$191.46 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +43.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.8% | $58.05 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.8% | $74.20 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.8% | $92.69 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $147.49 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$191.46
Market-Implied Growth
+43.6%/yr
vs +21.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$74.20
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TWLO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $510.5M · 0.15B shares · net debt $310.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$74.20
-61.2% vs $191.46
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $191.46; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | $88.71 | $94.31 | $101 | $108 | $117 |
| 9.8% | $76.79 | $80.94 | $85.65 | $91.05 | $97.30 |
| 10.8% | $67.48 | $70.65 | $74.20 | $78.19 | $82.73 |
| 11.8% | $60.01 | $62.49 | $65.24 | $68.30 | $71.72 |
| 12.8% | $53.89 | $55.88 | $58.06 | $60.46 | $63.11 |
