TGM's two-stage DCF values Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) between $25.20 and $69.39 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $42.20. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$51.99 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +8.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.0%/yr | 8.5% | $25.20 |
| Base case | 5.0%/yr | 7.5% | $42.20 |
| Optimistic | 8.0%/yr | 6.5% | $69.39 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $76.14 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$51.99
Market-Implied Growth
+8.4%/yr
vs +5.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$25.20 – $69.39
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TSN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $988.5M · 0.35B shares · net debt $7.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$42.20
-18.8% vs $51.99
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $51.99; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $61.16 | $71.45 | $85.16 | $104 | $133 |
| 6.5% | $44.41 | $50.59 | $58.31 | $68.22 | $81.42 |
| 7.5% | $33.26 | $37.32 | $42.20 | $48.15 | $55.59 |
| 8.5% | $25.29 | $28.15 | $31.47 | $35.39 | $40.09 |
| 9.5% | $19.33 | $21.42 | $23.81 | $26.56 | $29.77 |
