Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) between $25.39 and $69.68 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $42.43. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$57.42 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.2%/yr | 8.5% | $25.39 |
| Base case | 5.2%/yr | 7.5% | $42.43 |
| Optimistic | 8.2%/yr | 6.5% | $69.68 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $78.54 | |
Current Price
$57.42
Market-Implied Growth
+10.1%/yr
vs +5.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$25.39 – $69.68
model output — not a price target
TSN DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TSN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $988.5M · 0.36B shares · net debt $7.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$49.20
-14.3% vs $57.42
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $57.42; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $74.47 | $84.63 | $98.19 | $117 | $146 |
| 6.5% | $54.47 | $60.28 | $67.55 | $76.89 | $89.34 |
| 7.5% | $41.19 | $44.83 | $49.20 | $54.54 | $61.22 |
| 8.5% | $31.73 | $34.16 | $37.00 | $40.35 | $44.37 |
| 9.5% | $24.67 | $26.37 | $28.31 | $30.55 | $33.16 |
About Tyson Foods, Inc.
Tyson Foods, Inc. operates as a prominent global food producer, encompassing a broad range of activities across four core divisions: Beef, Pork, Chicken, and Prepared Foods. Within its Beef and Pork segments, the company manages the entire process from live cattle and hogs to their transformation into various meat products. This includes fabricating whole carcasses into primary and secondary cuts, providing case-ready options, and producing fully cooked meats. Its Chicken division is responsible for raising and processing poultry, delivering a spectrum of fresh, frozen, and value-added chicken items, and also supplying breeding stock. Additionally, Tyson markets specialty by-products such as animal hides. The Prepared Foods unit focuses on manufacturing and distributing a diverse portfolio of frozen and refrigerated convenience foods. This extensive lineup features items like ready-to-eat sandwiches, flame-grilled burgers, deli staples such as pepperoni, bacon, and lunchmeats, hot dogs, breakfast sausages, turkey products, tortilla items, appetizers, snacks, complete meals, ethnic dishes, side dishes, breadsticks, and other processed meats. These products are sold under popular brands including Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, Ball Park, Wright, State Fair, Aidells, Gallo Salame, as well as its proprietary Tyson and ibp labels. Tyson distributes its extensive product range through various channels globally. Its sales force directly serves grocery retailers, wholesalers, meat distributors, warehouse club stores, military commissaries, industrial food processors, chain restaurants and their distributors, live markets, and international export firms. The company also leverages independent brokers and trading companies to reach domestic distributors who cater to a wide array of food service operations, such as institutional cafeterias (e.g., plant and school), convenience stores, hospitals, and other vendors. Founded in 1935, Tyson Foods maintains its corporate headquarters in Springdale, Arkansas.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Agricultural Farm Products
- CEO
- Donnie D. King