Why we don't show a single “fair value” for TSEM
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($20.13) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.6%/yr | 9.6% | $11.50 |
| Base case | 4.6%/yr | 8.6% | $14.96 |
| Optimistic | 7.6%/yr | 7.6% | $20.13 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $23.92 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$216.57
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$14.96
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TSEM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $88.0M · 0.11B shares · net cash $73.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$14.96
-93.1% vs $216.57
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $216.57; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $18.40 | $20.02 | $22.03 | $24.60 | $28.00 |
| 7.6% | $15.44 | $16.52 | $17.80 | $19.36 | $21.31 |
| 8.6% | $13.33 | $14.08 | $14.96 | $16.00 | $17.24 |
| 9.6% | $11.73 | $12.29 | $12.93 | $13.66 | $14.51 |
| 10.6% | $10.49 | $10.91 | $11.39 | $11.93 | $12.54 |
