Why we don't show a single “fair value” for TSEM
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($20.47) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.3%/yr | 9.5% | $11.63 |
| Base case | 4.3%/yr | 8.5% | $15.17 |
| Optimistic | 7.3%/yr | 7.5% | $20.47 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 27, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $24.78 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$224.21
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$15.17
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TSEM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $88.0M · 0.11B shares · net cash $73.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$15.17
-93.2% vs $224.21
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $224.21; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $18.70 | $20.39 | $22.50 | $25.20 | $28.81 |
| 7.5% | $15.65 | $16.77 | $18.10 | $19.72 | $21.75 |
| 8.5% | $13.48 | $14.26 | $15.17 | $16.24 | $17.52 |
| 9.5% | $11.85 | $12.42 | $13.07 | $13.83 | $14.70 |
| 10.5% | $10.58 | $11.02 | $11.51 | $12.06 | $12.69 |
