Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) between $17.68 and $37.32 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $25.24. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$31.25 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +11.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.4%/yr | 8.5% | $17.68 |
| Base case | 6.4%/yr | 7.5% | $25.24 |
| Optimistic | 9.4%/yr | 6.5% | $37.32 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $40.79 | |
Current Price
$31.25
Market-Implied Growth
+11.0%/yr
vs +6.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$17.68 – $37.32
model output — not a price target
TSCO DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TSCO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $610.2M · 0.52B shares · net debt $1.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$29.53
-5.5% vs $31.25
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $31.25; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $41.34 | $46.11 | $52.48 | $61.39 | $74.75 |
| 6.5% | $31.98 | $34.71 | $38.12 | $42.50 | $48.35 |
| 7.5% | $25.76 | $27.47 | $29.53 | $32.03 | $35.17 |
| 8.5% | $21.35 | $22.49 | $23.82 | $25.39 | $27.28 |
| 9.5% | $18.05 | $18.85 | $19.76 | $20.81 | $22.03 |
About Tractor Supply Company
Tractor Supply Company functions as a prominent retailer, catering to the rural lifestyle demographic throughout the United States. Its extensive product catalog encompasses items crucial for the health, well-being, development, and enclosure of equine, livestock, pets, and small animals. Additionally, it stocks a variety of hardware, truck, towing, and tool supplies. Shoppers can also find seasonal goods like heating solutions, gardening equipment, power tools, novelty gifts, and children's toys, alongside workwear, casual apparel, footwear, and essential maintenance products designed for agricultural and general rural applications. These offerings are made available under a diverse portfolio of private label and proprietary brands, including 4health, Producer's Pride, American Farmworks, Red Shed, Bit & Bridle, Redstone, Blue Mountain, Retriever, C.E. Schmidt, Ridgecut, Countyline, Royal Wing, Dumor, Strive, Groundwork, Traveller, Huskee, Treeline, JobSmart, TSC Tractor Supply Co, Paws & Claws, and Untamed. Data from June 25, 2022, indicates the company's retail footprint included 2,016 Tractor Supply outlets spanning 49 states, complemented by 178 Petsense locations across 23 states. Its physical retail presence includes stores operating under the banners of Tractor Supply Company, Del's Feed & Farm Supply, and Petsense, while its digital storefronts are accessible via TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com. The primary customer base comprises recreational farmers, ranchers, and other individuals with similar needs. Established in 1938, the corporation maintains its corporate headquarters in Brentwood, Tennessee.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- CEO
- Harry A. Lawton