TGM's two-stage DCF values Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) between $17.13 and $36.23 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $24.48. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$33.01 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.8%/yr | 8.5% | $17.13 |
| Base case | 5.8%/yr | 7.5% | $24.48 |
| Optimistic | 8.8%/yr | 6.5% | $36.23 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $35.14 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$33.01
Market-Implied Growth
+12.2%/yr
vs +5.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$17.13 – $36.23
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TSCO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $610.2M · 0.52B shares · net debt $1.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$24.48
-25.8% vs $33.01
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $33.01; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $32.70 | $37.16 | $43.10 | $51.42 | $63.88 |
| 6.5% | $25.44 | $28.12 | $31.46 | $35.76 | $41.48 |
| 7.5% | $20.61 | $22.37 | $24.48 | $27.06 | $30.28 |
| 8.5% | $17.16 | $18.39 | $19.83 | $21.53 | $23.57 |
| 9.5% | $14.57 | $15.48 | $16.52 | $17.71 | $19.10 |
