TGM's two-stage DCF values Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) between $17.65 and $37.25 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $25.19. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$30.97 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.4%/yr | 8.5% | $17.65 |
| Base case | 6.4%/yr | 7.5% | $25.19 |
| Optimistic | 9.4%/yr | 6.5% | $37.25 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 29, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $39.00 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$30.97
Market-Implied Growth
+10.8%/yr
vs +6.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$17.65 – $37.25
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TSCO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $610.2M · 0.52B shares · net debt $1.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$25.19
-18.7% vs $30.97
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $30.97; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $33.65 | $38.23 | $44.35 | $52.90 | $65.72 |
| 6.5% | $26.18 | $28.93 | $32.37 | $36.79 | $42.68 |
| 7.5% | $21.21 | $23.02 | $25.19 | $27.85 | $31.16 |
| 8.5% | $17.66 | $18.93 | $20.41 | $22.16 | $24.25 |
| 9.5% | $15.00 | $15.94 | $17.00 | $18.22 | $19.65 |
