Tenaris S.A. (TS) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Tenaris S.A. (TS) between $110.90 and $208.37 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $151.74. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$57.22 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -5.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $110.90 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $151.74 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $208.37 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $156.96 | |
Current Price
$57.22
Market-Implied Growth
-5.1%/yr
vs +15.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$110.90 – $208.37
model output — not a price target
TS DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.1B · 0.54B shares · net cash $266.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$268.35
+369.0% vs $57.22
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $57.22; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $376 | $421 | $480 | $563 | $688 |
| 6.5% | $290 | $315 | $347 | $388 | $443 |
| 7.5% | $233 | $249 | $268 | $292 | $321 |
| 8.5% | $193 | $204 | $216 | $231 | $249 |
| 9.5% | $164 | $171 | $180 | $189 | $201 |
About Tenaris S.A.
Headquartered in Luxembourg and founded in 2001, Tenaris S.A., a subsidiary of Techint Holdings S.à r.l., is a prominent global manufacturer and distributor of steel tubular products. The company specializes in both seamless and welded steel pipes, offering a comprehensive suite of associated services. While its primary focus is the oil and gas industry, Tenaris also caters to a wide array of other industrial applications. Its extensive product catalog includes various steel casings, diverse tubing options, mechanical and structural piping, cold-drawn pipes, and premium joints and couplings. Furthermore, they supply coiled tubing vital for oil and gas drilling, well workovers, and subsea pipelines, alongside umbilical tubing products and a broad range of tubular accessories. Beyond these core offerings, Tenaris provides sucker rods, industrial machinery, heat exchangers, and utility conduits for construction. The company also engages in the sale of energy and raw materials, and offers financial services. Tenaris maintains a significant international footprint, with operations spanning North America, South America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and the Asia Pacific region.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
- CEO
- Paolo Rocca