TGM's two-stage DCF values Tenaris S.A. (TS) between $110.90 and $208.37 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $151.74. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$56.30 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -5.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $110.90 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $151.74 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $208.37 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $142.57 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$56.30
Market-Implied Growth
-5.5%/yr
vs +19.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$110.90 – $208.37
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.1B · 0.54B shares · net cash $266.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$151.74
+169.5% vs $56.30
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $56.30; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $199 | $225 | $259 | $307 | $380 |
| 6.5% | $157 | $173 | $192 | $217 | $250 |
| 7.5% | $129 | $140 | $152 | $167 | $185 |
| 8.5% | $110 | $117 | $125 | $135 | $146 |
| 9.5% | $94.75 | $99.94 | $106 | $113 | $121 |
