TGM's two-stage DCF values Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) between $170.73 and $344.76 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $231.21. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$568.26 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +20.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.5% | $170.73 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.5% | $231.21 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.5% | $344.76 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $499.50 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$568.26
Market-Implied Growth
+20.0%/yr
vs -1.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$170.73 – $344.76
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TMO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $6.9B · 0.37B shares · net debt $29.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$231.21
-59.3% vs $568.26
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $568.26; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $306 | $342 | $386 | $444 | $520 |
| 7.5% | $242 | $265 | $293 | $328 | $371 |
| 8.5% | $195 | $212 | $231 | $254 | $281 |
| 9.5% | $161 | $173 | $187 | $203 | $221 |
| 10.5% | $134 | $143 | $154 | $165 | $179 |
