TGM's two-stage DCF values Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) between $175.04 and $354.26 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $237.20. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$603.02 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +20.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.4% | $175.04 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.4% | $237.20 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.4% | $354.26 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $486.11 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$603.02
Market-Implied Growth
+20.8%/yr
vs -1.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$175.04 – $354.26
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TMO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $6.9B · 0.37B shares · net debt $29.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$237.20
-60.7% vs $603.02
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $603.02; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | $315 | $352 | $399 | $460 | $542 |
| 7.4% | $248 | $272 | $302 | $338 | $383 |
| 8.4% | $200 | $217 | $237 | $261 | $289 |
| 9.4% | $165 | $177 | $191 | $208 | $227 |
| 10.4% | $137 | $147 | $157 | $169 | $183 |
