TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) between $147.14 and $315.10 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $217.50. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$198.78 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +16.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $147.14 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $217.50 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $315.10 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $824.79 | |
Current Price
$198.78
Market-Implied Growth
+16.2%/yr
vs +31.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$147.14 – $315.10
model output — not a price target
TKO DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TKO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $498.9M · 0.07B shares · net debt $3.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$418.45
+110.5% vs $198.78
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $198.78; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $604 | $681 | $783 | $927 | $1142 |
| 6.5% | $456 | $500 | $554 | $625 | $719 |
| 7.5% | $358 | $385 | $418 | $459 | $509 |
| 8.5% | $289 | $307 | $329 | $354 | $384 |
| 9.5% | $238 | $251 | $265 | $282 | $302 |
About TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. stands as a significant enterprise within the sports and entertainment industries. Its business activities are primarily organized into four core divisions: Media and Content, Live Events, Sponsorships, and Consumer Products Licensing. The company is responsible for creating a diverse range of content, including live spectacles, television programs, and both lengthy and concise video productions. This material is disseminated to audiences in approximately 170 countries through various channels such as traditional broadcast, subscription-based television, streaming services, and numerous digital and social media platforms. Furthermore, TKO leverages its brands through the merchandising of a wide array of goods, including video games, clothing, equipment, collectible trading cards, memorabilia, digital assets, and toys. It also facilitates sales of exclusive travel packages and event admission. A key component of its revenue generation involves securing corporate sponsorships and handling advertising sales, which covers in-venue and broadcast ad placements, integrated product advertising within content, and digital advertising impressions. TKO Group Holdings, Inc. is headquartered in New York, New York, and operates as a subsidiary of Endeavor Group Holdings, Inc.
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- CEO
- Ariel Zev Emanuel