TGM's two-stage DCF values TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) between $147.14 and $315.09 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $217.50. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$183.07 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +14.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $147.14 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $217.50 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $315.09 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 5, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $746.99 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$183.07
Market-Implied Growth
+14.5%/yr
vs +31.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$147.14 – $315.09
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TKO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $498.9M · 0.07B shares · net debt $3.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$217.50
+18.8% vs $183.07
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $183.07; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $300 | $344 | $403 | $486 | $610 |
| 6.5% | $227 | $254 | $287 | $330 | $387 |
| 7.5% | $179 | $197 | $218 | $243 | $275 |
| 8.5% | $145 | $157 | $171 | $188 | $208 |
| 9.5% | $119 | $128 | $138 | $150 | $164 |
