TGM's two-stage DCF values TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) between $139.28 and $300.31 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $206.74. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$189.26 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +16.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $139.28 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $206.74 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $300.31 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $648.26 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$189.26
Market-Implied Growth
+16.2%/yr
vs +28.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$139.28 – $300.31
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TKO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $478.3M · 0.07B shares · net debt $3.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$206.74
+9.2% vs $189.26
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $189.26; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $285 | $328 | $385 | $464 | $583 |
| 6.5% | $216 | $241 | $273 | $314 | $369 |
| 7.5% | $170 | $187 | $207 | $231 | $262 |
| 8.5% | $137 | $149 | $162 | $179 | $198 |
| 9.5% | $113 | $121 | $131 | $142 | $155 |
