Target Corporation (TGT) DCF Valuation
Two independent models estimate Target Corporation's fair value between $62.61 (conservative case) and $149.28 (analyst consensus).
What would today's price require?
$127.64 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.6% a year for the next decade — faster than the company has actually grown.
Current Price
$127.64
Fair-Value Range
$62.61 – $149.28
Market-Implied Growth
+12.6%/yr
vs -12.1% 5Y actual
TGT DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $2.4B · 0.45B shares · net debt $11.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$62.61
-50.9% vs $127.64
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $127.64; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $83.67 | $89.20 | $95.73 | $104 | $113 |
| 9.0% | $68.46 | $72.24 | $76.60 | $81.69 | $87.70 |
| 10.0% | $56.88 | $59.57 | $62.61 | $66.09 | $70.11 |
| 11.0% | $47.77 | $49.74 | $51.94 | $54.42 | $57.23 |
| 12.0% | $40.43 | $41.91 | $43.55 | $45.36 | $47.40 |
About Target Corporation
Target Corporation operates as a prominent general merchandise retailer throughout the United States. Its extensive product range includes a wide array of food items like perishables, dry groceries, dairy, and frozen goods, alongside apparel, accessories, home décor, electronics, toys, seasonal offerings, and essential beauty and household products. Beyond merchandise, Target stores often feature convenient in-store amenities such as Target Café, Target Optical, Starbucks outlets, and various other food service options. The company facilitates sales through its physical retail locations and its digital platform, Target.com. As of March 9, 2022, Target maintained a network of approximately 2,000 stores. Founded in 1902, the corporation's headquarters are situated in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Discount Stores
- CEO
- Michael J. Fiddelke