TGM's two-stage DCF values Target Corporation (TGT) between $68.02 and $127.57 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $88.90. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$162.48 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +14.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.0% | $68.02 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.0% | $88.90 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.0% | $127.57 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $130.89 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$162.48
Market-Implied Growth
+14.3%/yr
vs -6.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$68.02 – $127.57
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TGT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.3B · 0.45B shares · net debt $11.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$88.90
-45.3% vs $162.48
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $162.48; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $114 | $125 | $139 | $156 | $178 |
| 8.0% | $92.60 | $100 | $109 | $120 | $134 |
| 9.0% | $76.99 | $82.52 | $88.90 | $96.34 | $105 |
| 10.0% | $65.05 | $69.19 | $73.87 | $79.22 | $85.38 |
| 11.0% | $55.63 | $58.82 | $62.38 | $66.38 | $70.90 |
