Target Corporation (TGT) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Target Corporation (TGT)'s fair value in a range of $62.64 – $149.26 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $126.61 sits within that range — roughly fairly valued on these assumptions.
Reverse DCF: at today's $126.61, the market is pricing in roughly +12.5%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of -12.1%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$126.61
Fair-Value Range
$62.64 – $149.26
Market-Implied Growth
+12.5%/yr
vs -12.1% 5Y actual
TGT DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $2.4B · 0.45B shares · net debt $11.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$62.64
-50.5% vs $126.61
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $126.61; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $83.71 | $89.24 | $95.78 | $104 | $113 |
| 9.0% | $68.49 | $72.28 | $76.64 | $81.73 | $87.75 |
| 10.0% | $56.90 | $59.59 | $62.64 | $66.12 | $70.14 |
| 11.0% | $47.79 | $49.77 | $51.97 | $54.45 | $57.26 |
| 12.0% | $40.45 | $41.93 | $43.57 | $45.39 | $47.42 |