TGM's two-stage DCF values Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) between $94.93 and $152.99 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $121.26. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$86.88 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.6% | $94.93 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.6% | $121.26 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.6% | $152.99 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $86.06 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$86.88
Market-Implied Growth
+9.1%/yr
vs +25.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$94.93 – $152.99
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TEAM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.1B · 0.26B shares · net cash $1.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$121.26
+39.6% vs $86.88
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $86.88; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $147 | $158 | $171 | $186 | $206 |
| 8.6% | $125 | $133 | $142 | $152 | $165 |
| 9.6% | $109 | $115 | $121 | $129 | $137 |
| 10.6% | $96.78 | $101 | $106 | $111 | $117 |
| 11.6% | $86.83 | $90.16 | $93.85 | $97.96 | $103 |
