TGM's two-stage DCF values Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) between $113.19 and $189.04 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $147.30. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$179.17 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +23.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.3% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.3% | $113.19 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.3% | $147.30 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.3% | $189.04 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $70.16 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$179.17
Market-Implied Growth
+23.1%/yr
vs +25.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$113.19 – $189.04
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TEAM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.4B · 0.26B shares · net cash $201.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$147.30
-17.8% vs $179.17
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $179.17; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $181 | $196 | $214 | $236 | $263 |
| 8.3% | $152 | $163 | $175 | $189 | $206 |
| 9.3% | $131 | $139 | $147 | $157 | $169 |
| 10.3% | $115 | $121 | $127 | $134 | $142 |
| 11.3% | $102 | $107 | $111 | $117 | $123 |