Why we don't show a single “fair value” for TDG
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($535.53) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$1,280.32 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +36.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.9%/yr | 9.5% | $75.88 |
| Base case | 13.9%/yr | 8.5% | $259.78 |
| Optimistic | 16.9%/yr | 7.5% | $535.53 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 3, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $2,257.21 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$1,280.32
Market-Implied Growth
+36.3%/yr
vs +13.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$259.78
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TDG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.5B · 0.06B shares · net debt $27.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$259.78
-79.7% vs $1280.32
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1280.32; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $451 | $542 | $655 | $801 | $996 |
| 7.5% | $286 | $346 | $418 | $505 | $615 |
| 8.5% | $169 | $211 | $260 | $317 | $386 |
| 9.5% | $81.55 | $112 | $147 | $188 | $235 |
| 10.5% | $13.72 | $36.98 | $63.11 | $92.68 | $126 |
