TGM's two-stage DCF values TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) between $125.53 and $620.22 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $324.08. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$1,083.14 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +33.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.4%/yr | 9.6% | $125.53 |
| Base case | 16.4%/yr | 8.6% | $324.08 |
| Optimistic | 19.4%/yr | 7.6% | $620.22 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $2,121.21 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$1,083.14
Market-Implied Growth
+33.6%/yr
vs +16.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$125.53 – $620.22
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TDG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.5B · 0.06B shares · net debt $27.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$324.08
-70.1% vs $1083.14
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1083.14; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $530 | $627 | $748 | $902 | $1106 |
| 7.6% | $353 | $417 | $494 | $588 | $704 |
| 8.6% | $226 | $271 | $324 | $386 | $460 |
| 9.6% | $131 | $164 | $202 | $246 | $297 |
| 10.6% | $57.24 | $82.52 | $111 | $143 | $179 |
