Why we don't show a single “fair value” for TCOM
Even the conservative scenario ($103.55) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$38.09 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -13.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $103.55 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $140.57 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $191.91 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Oct 2, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $321.22 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$38.09
Market-Implied Growth
-13.8%/yr
vs +24.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$140.57
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TCOM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.3B · 0.65B shares · net cash $2.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$140.57
+269.0% vs $38.09
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $38.09; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $184 | $207 | $238 | $282 | $347 |
| 6.5% | $146 | $160 | $177 | $200 | $230 |
| 7.5% | $120 | $130 | $141 | $154 | $171 |
| 8.5% | $102 | $109 | $116 | $125 | $136 |
| 9.5% | $88.90 | $93.61 | $98.99 | $105 | $112 |
