Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) between $67.59 and $151.40 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $97.57. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$41.58 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -10.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $67.59 |
| Base case | 2.6%/yr | 7.5% | $97.57 |
| Optimistic | 5.6%/yr | 6.5% | $151.40 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $45.27 | |
Current Price
$41.58
Market-Implied Growth
-10.6%/yr
vs +1.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$67.59 – $151.40
model output — not a price target
TAP DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TAP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.2B · 0.19B shares · net debt $5.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$98.11
+136.0% vs $41.58
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $41.58; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $142 | $160 | $183 | $216 | $265 |
| 6.5% | $107 | $117 | $130 | $146 | $167 |
| 7.5% | $84.31 | $90.58 | $98.11 | $107 | $119 |
| 8.5% | $67.86 | $72.04 | $76.93 | $82.70 | $89.63 |
| 9.5% | $55.53 | $58.46 | $61.80 | $65.65 | $70.15 |
About Molson Coors Beverage Company
Molson Coors Beverage Company is a global entity engaged in the production, marketing, and sale of a diverse range of beer and other malt-based beverages. Its extensive operations span the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific region. The company's product lineup also features flavored malt beverages, craft beers, and convenient ready-to-drink selections. Founded in 1774, the firm, headquartered in Golden, Colorado, was previously known as Molson Coors Brewing Company before officially adopting its current name, Molson Coors Beverage Company, in January 2020.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Beverages - Alcoholic
- CEO
- Rahul Goyal