TGM's two-stage DCF values Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) between $67.59 and $146.86 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $94.42. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$42.51 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -10.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $67.59 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $94.42 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $146.86 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 28, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $42.22 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$42.51
Market-Implied Growth
-10.3%/yr
vs -1.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$67.59 – $146.86
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for TAP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.2B · 0.19B shares · net debt $5.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$94.42
+122.1% vs $42.51
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $42.51; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $131 | $150 | $176 | $213 | $268 |
| 6.5% | $98.62 | $110 | $125 | $144 | $169 |
| 7.5% | $77.33 | $85.10 | $94.42 | $106 | $120 |
| 8.5% | $62.13 | $67.58 | $73.93 | $81.42 | $90.40 |
| 9.5% | $50.73 | $54.73 | $59.29 | $64.55 | $70.68 |
