A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$43.22 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +37.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.0% | N/A |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.0% | $5.92 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.0% | $16.20 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $28.63 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$43.22
Market-Implied Growth
+37.3%/yr
vs +23.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
N/A
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $616.8M · 0.52B shares · net debt $15.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$5.92
-86.3% vs $43.22
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $43.22; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $14.27 | $18.05 | $22.66 | $28.42 | $35.82 |
| 8.0% | $7.15 | $9.72 | $12.75 | $16.38 | $20.82 |
| 9.0% | $1.96 | $3.80 | $5.92 | $8.39 | $11.31 |
| 10.0% | N/A | N/A | $0.92 | $2.70 | $4.74 |
| 11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
