A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Smurfit Westrock plc (SW) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$48.26 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +38.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.8% | N/A |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.8% | $7.11 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.8% | $18.03 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $26.94 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$48.26
Market-Implied Growth
+38.1%/yr
vs +23.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
N/A
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $616.8M · 0.52B shares · net debt $15.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$7.11
-85.3% vs $48.26
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $48.26; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $16.02 | $20.13 | $25.20 | $31.59 | $39.91 |
| 7.8% | $8.40 | $11.16 | $14.43 | $18.39 | $23.26 |
| 8.8% | $2.88 | $4.84 | $7.11 | $9.77 | $12.92 |
| 9.8% | N/A | $0.16 | $1.81 | $3.70 | $5.88 |
| 10.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | $0.79 |
