Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) DCF Valuation
A meaningful DCF fair value isn't available for Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) — its free-cash-flow and net-debt profile makes a standard discounted-cash-flow model unreliable (common for loss-makers and high-net-debt or recently-public companies), and no analyst DCF is published. Explore your own assumptions with the editable model below.
What would today's price require?
$43.32 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +36.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.9% | N/A |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.9% | $6.50 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.9% | $17.10 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $30.07 | |
Current Price
$43.32
Market-Implied Growth
+36.8%/yr
vs +24.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
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SW DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $616.8M · 0.52B shares · net debt $15.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$31.95
-26.2% vs $43.32
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $43.32; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $51.59 | $57.97 | $65.80 | $75.64 | $88.37 |
| 7.9% | $36.67 | $40.78 | $45.65 | $51.52 | $58.72 |
| 8.9% | $25.92 | $28.72 | $31.95 | $35.73 | $40.22 |
| 9.9% | $17.84 | $19.82 | $22.08 | $24.65 | $27.63 |
| 10.9% | $11.58 | $13.03 | $14.65 | $16.48 | $18.55 |
About Smurfit Westrock Plc
Smurfit Westrock Plc, operating through its various group entities, is dedicated to the creation, supply, and sale of a wide array of paper-based packaging solutions across Ireland and globally. The company primarily produces containerboard, which it either transforms into corrugated containers for its own use or distributes to other businesses. Its extensive product range also features diverse paper types, including board for consumer packaging, sack paper, graphic paper, and both solid and graphic board. Beyond these materials, Smurfit Westrock offers a comprehensive selection of paper-based packaging items, such as consumer packaging, robust solid board packaging, paper sacks, and unique options like bag-in-box systems. The firm further manufactures linerboard, corrugated medium, various grades of paperboard, and non-packaging paper. Additionally, it develops converted products like folding cartons and corrugated boxes, alongside other goods. A key aspect of their operations involves creating packaging from recycled paper, and they also provide packaging machinery. Smurfit Westrock primarily caters to a broad clientele across sectors such as food and beverage, online retail, general commerce, consumer products, industrial applications, and the foodservice industry. The company was established in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Packaging & Containers
- CEO
- Anthony Paul J. Smurfit