Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) between $99.82 and $232.08 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $144.57. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$143.12 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +1.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $99.82 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $144.57 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $232.08 |
Current Price
$143.12
Market-Implied Growth
+1.8%/yr
vs -1.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$99.82 – $232.08
model output — not a price target
STZ DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for STZ (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.8B · 0.17B shares · net debt $10.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$140.88
-1.6% vs $143.12
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $143.12; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $210 | $238 | $274 | $326 | $403 |
| 6.5% | $156 | $171 | $191 | $216 | $250 |
| 7.5% | $119 | $129 | $141 | $155 | $173 |
| 8.5% | $93.21 | $99.80 | $107 | $117 | $127 |
| 9.5% | $73.75 | $78.35 | $83.61 | $89.68 | $96.75 |
About Constellation Brands, Inc.
Constellation Brands, Inc., operating through its subsidiaries, is a global producer, importer, and distributor of a diverse range of beer, wine, and spirits. The company's extensive market presence spans the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. Its prominent beer brands include Corona Extra, Corona Premier, Corona Familiar, Corona Light, Corona Refresca, Corona Hard Seltzer, Modelo Especial, Modelo Negra, Modelo Chelada, Pacifico, and Victoria. Within its wine portfolio, consumers can find labels such as 7 Moons, Cook's California Champagne, Cooper & Thief, Crafters Union, Kim Crawford, Meiomi, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, SIMI, The Dreaming Tree, Charles Smith, The Prisoner Wine Company, Robert Mondavi, My Favorite Neighbor, and Schrader. The spirits division encompasses brands like Casa Noble, Copper & Kings, High West, Mi CAMPO, Nelson's Green Brier, and SVEDKA. The company's products are supplied to various outlets, including wholesale distributors, retailers, on-premise establishments, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Founded in 1945, Constellation Brands, Inc. is headquartered in Victor, New York.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
- CEO
- Nicholas Ian Fink