Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) DCF Valuation
A discounted-cash-flow model values Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) at about $105.00 (TGM base case). Today's price of $140.09 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $140.09, the market is pricing in roughly +7.6%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of -1.6%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$140.09
Fair-Value Range
$105.00
Market-Implied Growth
+7.6%/yr
vs -1.6% 5Y actual
STZ DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $1.7B · 0.17B shares · net debt $10.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$105.00
-25.0% vs $140.09
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $140.09; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $145 | $156 | $168 | $183 | $202 |
| 9.0% | $116 | $123 | $132 | $141 | $153 |
| 10.0% | $94.05 | $99.18 | $105 | $112 | $119 |
| 11.0% | $76.64 | $80.41 | $84.62 | $89.35 | $94.72 |
| 12.0% | $62.62 | $65.44 | $68.57 | $72.04 | $75.93 |
About Constellation Brands, Inc.
Constellation Brands, Inc., operating through its subsidiaries, is a global producer, importer, and distributor of a diverse range of beer, wine, and spirits. The company's extensive market presence spans the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. Its prominent beer brands include Corona Extra, Corona Premier, Corona Familiar, Corona Light, Corona Refresca, Corona Hard Seltzer, Modelo Especial, Modelo Negra, Modelo Chelada, Pacifico, and Victoria. Within its wine portfolio, consumers can find labels such as 7 Moons, Cook's California Champagne, Cooper & Thief, Crafters Union, Kim Crawford, Meiomi, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, SIMI, The Dreaming Tree, Charles Smith, The Prisoner Wine Company, Robert Mondavi, My Favorite Neighbor, and Schrader. The spirits division encompasses brands like Casa Noble, Copper & Kings, High West, Mi CAMPO, Nelson's Green Brier, and SVEDKA. The company's products are supplied to various outlets, including wholesale distributors, retailers, on-premise establishments, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Founded in 1945, Constellation Brands, Inc. is headquartered in Victor, New York.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
- CEO
- Nicholas Ian Fink