Why we don't show a single “fair value” for STX
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($28.53) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $13.03 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.5% | $18.59 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.5% | $28.53 |
Current Price
$851.69
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$18.59
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for STX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $741.0M · 0.22B shares · net debt $4.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$18.59
-97.8% vs $851.69
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $851.69; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $24.49 | $26.64 | $29.10 | $31.93 | $35.22 |
| 10.5% | $19.72 | $21.35 | $23.19 | $25.27 | $27.64 |
| 11.5% | $15.90 | $17.18 | $18.59 | $20.17 | $21.95 |
| 12.5% | $12.78 | $13.80 | $14.92 | $16.15 | $17.52 |
| 13.5% | $10.18 | $11.01 | $11.91 | $12.89 | $13.98 |
