Why we don't show a single “fair value” for STX
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($39.86) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.5% | $23.03 |
| Base case | 2.7%/yr | 11.5% | $29.64 |
| Optimistic | 5.7%/yr | 10.5% | $39.86 |
Current Price
$904.38
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$29.64
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for STX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $741.0M · 0.22B shares · net debt $1.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$29.64
-96.7% vs $904.38
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $904.38; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $35.73 | $37.95 | $40.49 | $43.42 | $46.82 |
| 10.5% | $30.80 | $32.49 | $34.39 | $36.53 | $38.98 |
| 11.5% | $26.85 | $28.17 | $29.64 | $31.27 | $33.10 |
| 12.5% | $23.63 | $24.68 | $25.84 | $27.11 | $28.53 |
| 13.5% | $20.94 | $21.80 | $22.73 | $23.75 | $24.86 |
