Siemens Energy AG (SMEGF) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SMEGF
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($36.99) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.0%/yr | 12.5% | $26.94 |
| Base case | 8.0%/yr | 11.5% | $31.22 |
| Optimistic | 11.0%/yr | 10.5% | $36.99 |
Current Price
$196.13
Market-Implied Growth
—
Base-Case Model Value
$31.22
model output — not a price target
SMEGF DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SMEGF (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 0.86B shares · net cash $8.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$35.09
-82.1% vs $196.13
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $196.13; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $40.54 | $41.73 | $43.10 | $44.67 | $46.51 |
| 10.5% | $36.75 | $37.61 | $38.58 | $39.68 | $40.94 |
| 11.5% | $33.74 | $34.38 | $35.09 | $35.89 | $36.78 |
| 12.5% | $31.30 | $31.78 | $32.32 | $32.91 | $33.57 |
| 13.5% | $29.28 | $29.65 | $30.06 | $30.51 | $31.01 |
About Siemens Energy AG
Siemens Energy AG is a global leader in energy technology, operating across two key divisions: Gas and Power, and Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy. Within its Gas and Power segment, the company provides essential equipment for both centralized and distributed power generation, including advanced gas and steam turbines, generators, and gas engines. This offering is complemented by services such as performance optimization, maintenance, customer training, and expert consulting. The division's portfolio also encompasses critical infrastructure for energy transmission and distribution, featuring transformers, air and gas-insulated switchgears, AC transmission systems, offshore windfarm grid connections, high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission systems, high-voltage substations, and integrated digital solutions and components. Furthermore, it supplies specialized rotating equipment like industrial and aero-derivative gas turbines, turbo- and reciprocating compressors, and complete compression trains, alongside solutions for electrification, automation, digitalization, plant safety and security, and water treatment. Siemens Energy is also actively developing innovative technologies for decarbonized energy and advanced storage systems. Through its Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy division, the company delivers comprehensive wind power solutions. This includes the design, engineering, manufacturing, and installation of both onshore and offshore wind turbines, as well as ongoing operation and maintenance services for wind farms worldwide. Siemens Energy serves a diverse clientele, including utilities, independent power producers, project developers, companies in the oil and gas sector, transmission and distribution system operators, and various industrial and infrastructure clients. The company, established in 1866, is headquartered in Munich, Germany.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial - Machinery
- CEO
- Christian Bruch