Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SMEGF
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($37.01) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 5.0%/yr | 12.5% | $26.96 |
| Base case | 8.0%/yr | 11.5% | $31.23 |
| Optimistic | 11.0%/yr | 10.5% | $37.01 |
Current Price
$156.55
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$31.23
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SMEGF (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 0.86B shares · net cash $8.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$31.23
-80.0% vs $156.55
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 8.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $156.55; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $34.77 | $36.07 | $37.55 | $39.25 | $41.24 |
| 10.5% | $31.91 | $32.89 | $33.99 | $35.24 | $36.67 |
| 11.5% | $29.62 | $30.38 | $31.23 | $32.18 | $33.25 |
| 12.5% | $27.75 | $28.36 | $29.03 | $29.77 | $30.59 |
| 13.5% | $26.19 | $26.69 | $27.23 | $27.82 | $28.47 |
