Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SMCI
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Super Micro Computer, Inc. right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $2.43 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $2.89 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $3.41 |
Current Price
$30.63
Market-Implied Growth
—
Base-Case Model Value
$2.89
model output — not a price target
SMCI DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SMCI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $70.4M · 0.65B shares · net cash $412.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$4.33
-85.9% vs $30.63
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $30.63; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $5.23 | $5.44 | $5.68 | $5.96 | $6.28 |
| 10.5% | $4.59 | $4.75 | $4.92 | $5.11 | $5.33 |
| 11.5% | $4.09 | $4.20 | $4.33 | $4.47 | $4.62 |
| 12.5% | $3.68 | $3.77 | $3.86 | $3.97 | $4.08 |
| 13.5% | $3.35 | $3.42 | $3.49 | $3.57 | $3.66 |
About Super Micro Computer, Inc.
Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company provides liquid and air-cooled AI servers for training and inferencing with integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) or PCIe based architectures; SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin blade and multi-node systems; SuperStorage systems; Hyper, CloudDC, and WIO and rackmount systems; embedded (5G/IoT/Edge) systems; and MicroCloud server systems. It also offers workstations and networking devices; and modular server subsystems and accessories, including server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories. In addition, the company provides remote system management solutions, such as Server Management suite comprising Supermicro Server Manager, Supermicro Power Management software, Supermicro Update Manager, SuperCloud Composer, and SuperDoctor 5. Further, the company identifies service requirements; creates and executes project plans; conducts verification testing; offers training; and provides technical documentation. Additionally, it offers rack level services from design to deployment for full rack and cluster level deployments of AI and HPC datacenters; help desk services and on-site product support; and warranties, maintenance, and technical support services. The company serves enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, 5G, and edge computing markets through direct and indirect sales force, distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and original equipment manufacturers. Super Micro Computer, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Computer Hardware
- CEO
- Charles Liang