Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SCCO
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($96.24) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$200.06 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +38.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.6%/yr | 10.8% | $55.44 |
| Base case | 12.6%/yr | 9.8% | $72.31 |
| Optimistic | 15.6%/yr | 8.8% | $96.24 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $76.18 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$200.06
Market-Implied Growth
+38.9%/yr
vs +15.5% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$72.31
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SCCO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.0B · 0.83B shares · net debt $2.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$72.31
-63.9% vs $200.06
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $200.06; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | $88.06 | $94.67 | $103 | $112 | $124 |
| 8.8% | $74.87 | $79.56 | $85.00 | $91.36 | $98.91 |
| 9.8% | $64.89 | $68.36 | $72.31 | $76.84 | $82.07 |
| 10.8% | $57.08 | $59.74 | $62.71 | $66.07 | $69.87 |
| 11.8% | $50.80 | $52.89 | $55.20 | $57.77 | $60.64 |
