Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SCCO
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($97.95) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$199.06 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +38.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.6%/yr | 10.7% | $56.19 |
| Base case | 12.6%/yr | 9.7% | $73.42 |
| Optimistic | 15.6%/yr | 8.7% | $97.95 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $83.40 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$199.06
Market-Implied Growth
+38.3%/yr
vs +15.5% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$73.42
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SCCO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.0B · 0.83B shares · net debt $2.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$73.42
-63.1% vs $199.06
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $199.06; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | $89.62 | $96.47 | $105 | $115 | $127 |
| 8.7% | $76.02 | $80.87 | $86.49 | $93.09 | $101 |
| 9.7% | $65.77 | $69.35 | $73.42 | $78.09 | $83.51 |
| 10.7% | $57.78 | $60.51 | $63.57 | $67.02 | $70.94 |
| 11.7% | $51.37 | $53.51 | $55.88 | $58.51 | $61.46 |
