Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) between $51.76 and $89.15 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $67.28. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$171.84 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +35.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.6%/yr | 11.0% | $51.76 |
| Base case | 11.6%/yr | 10.0% | $67.28 |
| Optimistic | 14.6%/yr | 9.0% | $89.15 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $81.28 | |
Current Price
$171.84
Market-Implied Growth
+35.6%/yr
vs +12.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$51.76 – $89.15
model output — not a price target
SCCO DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SCCO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $3.0B · 0.83B shares · net debt $2.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$92.05
-46.4% vs $171.84
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $171.84; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $117 | $124 | $132 | $142 | $154 |
| 9.0% | $98.89 | $104 | $109 | $115 | $123 |
| 10.0% | $84.93 | $88.27 | $92.05 | $96.37 | $101 |
| 11.0% | $74.02 | $76.47 | $79.20 | $82.28 | $85.76 |
| 12.0% | $65.29 | $67.13 | $69.16 | $71.41 | $73.94 |
About Southern Copper Corporation
Southern Copper Corporation engages in mining, exploring, smelting, and refining copper and other minerals in Mexico, the United States, Peru, Brazil, Chile, and Other American countries. The company is involved in the mining, milling, and flotation of copper ore to produce copper and molybdenum concentrates; smelting of copper concentrates to produce blister and anode copper; refining of anode copper to produce copper cathodes; production of copper-molybdenum concentrates and sulfuric acid; production of refined silver, gold, and other materials; and mining and processing of copper, molybdenum, zinc, silver, gold and lead. It operates the Toquepala and Cuajone open-pit mines, smelter, and refinery in Peru; La Caridad, an open-pit copper mine, as well as copper ore concentrator; and SX-EW plant, a smelter, refinery, and rod plant in Mexico. The company also operates Buenavista, an open-pit copper mine, as well as copper concentrators and operating SX-EW plants in Mexico. In addition, it operates underground mines that produce zinc, lead, copper, silver, and gold; coal mine; and zinc refinery. The company has interests in 164,805 hectares and 505,788 hectares of concessions in Peru and Mexico; and 98,634 hectares and 28,453 hectares of exploration concessions in Argentina and Chile. Southern Copper Corporation was formerly known as Southern Peru Copper Corp. and changed its name to Southern Copper Corporation in July 1996. The company was incorporated in 1952 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona. Southern Copper Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Americas Mining Corporation.
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Copper
- CEO
- Oscar Gonzalez Rocha