TGM's two-stage DCF values Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) between $26.98 and $56.36 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $38.87. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$100.50 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +27.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.2%/yr | 9.9% | $26.98 |
| Base case | 7.2%/yr | 8.9% | $38.87 |
| Optimistic | 10.2%/yr | 7.9% | $56.36 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $42.77 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$100.50
Market-Implied Growth
+27.5%/yr
vs +7.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$26.98 – $56.36
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SBUX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.9B · 1.14B shares · net debt $12.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$38.87
-61.3% vs $100.50
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $100.50; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $50.48 | $55.79 | $62.30 | $70.46 | $81.03 |
| 7.9% | $40.56 | $44.16 | $48.41 | $53.52 | $59.79 |
| 8.9% | $33.34 | $35.91 | $38.87 | $42.33 | $46.43 |
| 9.9% | $27.84 | $29.75 | $31.92 | $34.40 | $37.25 |
| 10.9% | $23.53 | $24.99 | $26.63 | $28.47 | $30.56 |
