TGM's two-stage DCF values Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) between $30.99 and $63.20 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $44.06. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$103.25 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +28.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.0%/yr | 10.0% | $30.99 |
| Base case | 10.0%/yr | 9.0% | $44.06 |
| Optimistic | 13.0%/yr | 8.0% | $63.20 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $44.28 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$103.25
Market-Implied Growth
+28.6%/yr
vs +10.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$30.99 – $63.20
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SBUX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.9B · 1.14B shares · net debt $12.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$44.06
-57.3% vs $103.25
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $103.25; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $56.87 | $62.66 | $69.73 | $78.56 | $89.91 |
| 8.0% | $45.96 | $49.90 | $54.55 | $60.13 | $66.94 |
| 9.0% | $37.97 | $40.80 | $44.06 | $47.86 | $52.35 |
| 10.0% | $31.89 | $34.00 | $36.39 | $39.12 | $42.26 |
| 11.0% | $27.09 | $28.72 | $30.53 | $32.57 | $34.87 |
