Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) between $206.40 and $330.58 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $258.75. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$403.98 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +25.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.0%/yr | 11.9% | $206.40 |
| Base case | 13.0%/yr | 10.9% | $258.75 |
| Optimistic | 16.0%/yr | 9.9% | $330.58 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $160.98 | |
Current Price
$403.98
Market-Implied Growth
+25.1%/yr
vs +22.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$206.40 – $330.58
model output — not a price target
RL DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $825.5M · 0.06B shares · net cash $537.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$358.27
-11.3% vs $403.98
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $403.98; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.9% | $444 | $465 | $489 | $517 | $551 |
| 9.9% | $383 | $398 | $415 | $434 | $456 |
| 10.9% | $335 | $346 | $358 | $372 | $387 |
| 11.9% | $297 | $305 | $314 | $324 | $336 |
| 12.9% | $266 | $273 | $279 | $287 | $295 |
About Ralph Lauren Corporation
Ralph Lauren Corporation is a prominent international entity primarily involved in the creation, marketing, and distribution of premium lifestyle goods across North America, Europe, Asia, and other global regions. The company's diverse product range includes: Apparel: A comprehensive selection of clothing for men, women, and children. Footwear & Accessories: Various shoe styles (casual, dress, boots, sneakers, sandals), eyewear, timepieces, both fashion and fine jewelry, scarves, hats, gloves, umbrellas, and an assortment of leather items like handbags, luggage, small leather goods, and belts. Home Goods: Linens for bed and bath, furniture, fabric and wall coverings, lighting solutions, tabletop items, kitchen textiles, floor coverings, and giftware. Fragrances: A variety of scents developed for both men and women. Key apparel and accessory lines are sold under brand names such as Ralph Lauren Collection, Ralph Lauren Purple Label, Polo Ralph Lauren, Double RL, Lauren Ralph Lauren, Polo Golf Ralph Lauren, Ralph Lauren Golf, RLX Ralph Lauren, Polo Ralph Lauren Children, and Chaps. Its women's fragrances include the Ralph Lauren Collection, Woman by Ralph Lauren, Romance Collection, and Ralph Collection, while men's offerings feature Polo Blue, Ralph's Club, Safari, Purple Label, Polo Red, Polo Green, Polo Black, Polo Sport, and Big Pony Men's. Beyond merchandise, Ralph Lauren also extends its brand into hospitality with a collection of dining venues, including The Polo Bar in New York City, RL Restaurant in Chicago, Ralph's in Paris, The Bar at Ralph Lauren in Milan, and the Ralph's Coffee concept. Products reach consumers through various channels: wholesale distribution to department stores, specialty retailers, and golf and professional shops, as well as direct-to-consumer sales via its own retail establishments, concession-based shop-in-shops, and digital commerce platforms. The corporation directly operates 504 retail stores (comprising 175 Ralph Lauren stores and 329 factory stores) and 684 concession-based shop-within-shops. Additionally, 148 stores and shops are operated through licensing partnerships. Founded in 1967, Ralph Lauren Corporation maintains its headquarters in New York, New York.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Apparel - Manufacturers
- CEO
- Patrice Jean Louis Louvet