TGM's two-stage DCF values Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) between $208.56 and $335.21 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $261.87. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$379.88 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +23.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.8% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.0%/yr | 11.8% | $208.56 |
| Base case | 13.0%/yr | 10.8% | $261.87 |
| Optimistic | 16.0%/yr | 9.8% | $335.21 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 30, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $172.26 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$379.88
Market-Implied Growth
+23.0%/yr
vs +22.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$208.56 – $335.21
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $825.5M · 0.06B shares · net cash $537.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$261.87
-31.1% vs $379.88
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $379.88; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | $309 | $327 | $348 | $372 | $402 |
| 9.8% | $270 | $284 | $299 | $316 | $337 |
| 10.8% | $240 | $250 | $262 | $275 | $289 |
| 11.8% | $216 | $224 | $233 | $243 | $254 |
| 12.8% | $196 | $203 | $210 | $217 | $226 |
