Roblox Corporation (RBLX) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for RBLX
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($14.52) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$43.49 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +55.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.2% | $9.44 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.2% | $11.83 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.2% | $14.52 |
Current Price
$43.49
Market-Implied Growth
+55.2%/yr
vs +25.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$11.83
model output — not a price target
RBLX DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RBLX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $383.3M · 0.72B shares · net cash $212.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$19.25
-55.7% vs $43.49
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $43.49; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | $24.03 | $25.17 | $26.49 | $28.02 | $29.81 |
| 10.2% | $20.63 | $21.45 | $22.38 | $23.43 | $24.64 |
| 11.2% | $17.97 | $18.58 | $19.25 | $20.01 | $20.86 |
| 12.2% | $15.85 | $16.30 | $16.81 | $17.36 | $17.99 |
| 13.2% | $14.11 | $14.46 | $14.85 | $15.27 | $15.73 |
About Roblox Corporation
Roblox Corporation oversees the development and operation of a leading digital entertainment ecosystem. Its offerings include Roblox Studio, a complimentary suite of tools empowering developers and artists to construct, launch, and manage interactive 3D environments and various other forms of content. Through the Roblox Client application, users can navigate and immerse themselves in these digital 3D realms. The platform also features Roblox Education, specifically designed for educational pursuits. Furthermore, Roblox Cloud furnishes the fundamental services and infrastructure necessary to support its unique human co-experience platform. With a vast customer base, the company caters to users across the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, numerous European nations, China, the Asia-Pacific region, and other global markets. Incorporated in 2004, its primary corporate operations are based in San Mateo, California.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Electronic Gaming & Multimedia
- CEO
- David Baszucki