TGM's two-stage DCF values Ferrari N.V. (RACE) between $115.02 and $233.03 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $160.44. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$412.26 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +35.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.4%/yr | 8.5% | $115.02 |
| Base case | 12.4%/yr | 7.5% | $160.44 |
| Optimistic | 15.4%/yr | 6.5% | $233.03 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $187.87 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$412.26
Market-Implied Growth
+35.6%/yr
vs +12.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$115.02 – $233.03
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for RACE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $953.2M · 0.18B shares · net debt $1.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$160.44
-61.1% vs $412.26
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $412.26; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $212 | $241 | $278 | $331 | $409 |
| 6.5% | $167 | $183 | $205 | $232 | $268 |
| 7.5% | $136 | $147 | $160 | $177 | $197 |
| 8.5% | $114 | $122 | $131 | $142 | $155 |
| 9.5% | $97.99 | $104 | $110 | $118 | $126 |
