TGM's two-stage DCF values QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) between $109.56 and $179.00 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $139.08. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$170.04 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +14.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.0%/yr | 12.5% | $109.56 |
| Base case | 9.0%/yr | 11.5% | $139.08 |
| Optimistic | 12.0%/yr | 10.5% | $179.00 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 27, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $137.31 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$170.04
Market-Implied Growth
+14.0%/yr
vs +9.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$109.56 – $179.00
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for QCOM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $10.5B · 1.05B shares · net debt $7.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$139.08
-18.2% vs $170.04
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $170.04; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $164 | $173 | $183 | $195 | $209 |
| 10.5% | $144 | $151 | $158 | $167 | $177 |
| 11.5% | $128 | $133 | $139 | $146 | $153 |
| 12.5% | $115 | $119 | $124 | $129 | $135 |
| 13.5% | $104 | $108 | $111 | $115 | $120 |
