TGM's two-stage DCF values QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) between $90.06 and $147.37 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $114.43. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$176.59 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +14.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.2%/yr | 12.5% | $90.06 |
| Base case | 4.2%/yr | 11.5% | $114.43 |
| Optimistic | 7.2%/yr | 10.5% | $147.37 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 7, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $132.34 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$176.59
Market-Implied Growth
+14.8%/yr
vs +2.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$90.06 – $147.37
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for QCOM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $10.5B · 1.05B shares · net debt $7.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$114.43
-35.2% vs $176.59
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $176.59; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $134 | $141 | $150 | $159 | $170 |
| 10.5% | $118 | $124 | $130 | $137 | $145 |
| 11.5% | $105 | $110 | $114 | $120 | $126 |
| 12.5% | $94.93 | $98.35 | $102 | $106 | $111 |
| 13.5% | $86.22 | $89.00 | $92.02 | $95.32 | $98.95 |
