TGM's two-stage DCF values PTC Inc. (PTC) between $94.89 and $173.19 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $126.75. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$122.17 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.9%/yr | 10.1% | $94.89 |
| Base case | 12.9%/yr | 9.1% | $126.75 |
| Optimistic | 15.9%/yr | 8.1% | $173.19 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $149.67 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$122.17
Market-Implied Growth
+12.0%/yr
vs +21.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$94.89 – $173.19
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PTC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $658.9M · 0.12B shares · net debt $1.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$126.75
+3.7% vs $122.17
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $122.17; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $158 | $172 | $189 | $210 | $237 |
| 8.1% | $131 | $141 | $152 | $166 | $182 |
| 9.1% | $112 | $119 | $127 | $136 | $147 |
| 10.1% | $96.91 | $102 | $108 | $115 | $122 |
| 11.1% | $85.10 | $89.09 | $93.54 | $98.54 | $104 |
