TGM's two-stage DCF values PTC Inc. (PTC) between $89.26 and $163.18 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $119.34. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$133.25 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +14.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.5%/yr | 10.1% | $89.26 |
| Base case | 11.5%/yr | 9.1% | $119.34 |
| Optimistic | 14.5%/yr | 8.1% | $163.18 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $143.10 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$133.25
Market-Implied Growth
+14.1%/yr
vs +22.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$89.26 – $163.18
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PTC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $658.9M · 0.12B shares · net debt $1.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$119.34
-10.4% vs $133.25
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $133.25; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $149 | $162 | $178 | $198 | $223 |
| 8.1% | $124 | $133 | $143 | $156 | $171 |
| 9.1% | $105 | $112 | $119 | $128 | $138 |
| 10.1% | $91.31 | $96.17 | $102 | $108 | $115 |
| 11.1% | $80.21 | $83.96 | $88.15 | $92.84 | $98.14 |
