TGM's two-stage DCF values Pool Corporation (POOL) between $140.06 and $247.56 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $177.93. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$204.92 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.3% | $140.06 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.3% | $177.93 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.3% | $247.56 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 5, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $212.13 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$204.92
Market-Implied Growth
+4.9%/yr
vs -3.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$140.06 – $247.56
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for POOL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $520.5M · 0.04B shares · net debt $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$177.93
-13.2% vs $204.92
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $204.92; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $222 | $242 | $266 | $295 | $331 |
| 8.3% | $185 | $198 | $214 | $233 | $256 |
| 9.3% | $157 | $167 | $178 | $191 | $206 |
| 10.3% | $135 | $143 | $151 | $160 | $171 |
| 11.3% | $118 | $124 | $130 | $137 | $145 |
