Pool Corporation (POOL) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Pool Corporation (POOL) between $151.25 and $282.56 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $205.20. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$198.99 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.7%/yr | 10.5% | $151.25 |
| Base case | 5.7%/yr | 9.5% | $205.20 |
| Optimistic | 8.7%/yr | 8.5% | $282.56 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $210.94 | |
Current Price
$198.99
Market-Implied Growth
+5.0%/yr
vs +6.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$151.25 – $282.56
model output — not a price target
POOL DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for POOL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $520.5M · 0.04B shares · net debt $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$232.18
+16.7% vs $198.99
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $198.99; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | $301 | $321 | $345 | $373 | $410 |
| 8.5% | $251 | $264 | $279 | $297 | $319 |
| 9.5% | $213 | $222 | $232 | $244 | $258 |
| 10.5% | $183 | $190 | $197 | $206 | $215 |
| 11.5% | $160 | $165 | $170 | $176 | $183 |
About Pool Corporation
Pool Corporation, established in 1993 and based in Covington, Louisiana, serves as a leading wholesale distributor of swimming pool essentials, outdoor living accessories, and related recreational merchandise. Operating extensively across the United States and globally, the company supported its diverse clientele through 410 sales centers spanning North America, Europe, and Australia as of March 2022. Its comprehensive product portfolio encompasses a broad array of upkeep items like chemicals, general provisions, and pool accouterments; components for servicing and replacing critical pool machinery such as purification systems, heating units, circulation pumps, and lighting fixtures; and structural elements including complete fiberglass pools, luxury spas, and comprehensive pre-packaged pool kits designed for both subterranean and elevated installations, encompassing structural walls, liners, support braces, and coping. Furthermore, Pool Corp. supplies diverse pool apparatus and constituent parts vital for both fresh installations and the refurbishment of existing aquatic facilities; irrigation solutions, including integrated system elements and specialized equipment and provisions for professional lawn maintenance; and construction essentials such as concrete, plumbing and electrical infrastructure, a variety of functional and aesthetic pool finishes, decking options, tiles, hardscaping elements, and natural stone for new builds and renovations. The company also offers specialized commercial-grade products, including robust heating units, essential safety apparatus, and industrial-scale pumps and filtration systems, alongside additional recreational and outdoor living items like barbecues and modules for custom outdoor kitchen setups. Pool Corporation's extensive client base includes swimming pool construction and renovation specialists, independent retailers of pool provisions, repair and maintenance enterprises, irrigation and landscape professionals, and institutional clients such as hospitality venues, educational institutions, and public recreational centers.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial - Distribution
- CEO
- Peter D. Arvan