TGM's two-stage DCF values Pool Corporation (POOL) between $137.90 and $242.75 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $174.88. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.4%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$167.96 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +1.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.4% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.4% | $137.90 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.4% | $174.88 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.4% | $242.75 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $200.86 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$167.96
Market-Implied Growth
+1.2%/yr
vs -3.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$137.90 – $242.75
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for POOL (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $520.5M · 0.04B shares · net debt $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$174.88
+4.1% vs $167.96
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $167.96; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | $218 | $237 | $259 | $287 | $322 |
| 8.4% | $182 | $195 | $210 | $228 | $250 |
| 9.4% | $154 | $164 | $175 | $188 | $202 |
| 10.4% | $133 | $140 | $149 | $158 | $168 |
| 11.4% | $116 | $122 | $128 | $135 | $143 |
