Why we don't show a single “fair value” for PLTR
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($10.82) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $7.23 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $8.92 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $10.82 |
Current Price
$122.92
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$8.92
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PLTR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $919.1M · 2.30B shares · net cash $1.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$8.92
-92.7% vs $122.92
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $122.92; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $10.39 | $10.93 | $11.54 | $12.25 | $13.08 |
| 10.5% | $9.20 | $9.61 | $10.07 | $10.59 | $11.18 |
| 11.5% | $8.25 | $8.57 | $8.92 | $9.32 | $9.76 |
| 12.5% | $7.48 | $7.73 | $8.01 | $8.32 | $8.66 |
| 13.5% | $6.84 | $7.05 | $7.27 | $7.51 | $7.78 |
