TGM's two-stage DCF values The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) between $83.07 and $160.19 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $109.17. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$147.41 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +8.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $83.07 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $109.17 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $160.19 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $197.34 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$147.41
Market-Implied Growth
+8.5%/yr
vs -1.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$83.07 – $160.19
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $13.9B · 2.33B shares · net debt $25.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$109.17
-25.9% vs $147.41
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $147.41; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $144 | $163 | $189 | $224 | $278 |
| 6.5% | $113 | $125 | $139 | $157 | $182 |
| 7.5% | $92.55 | $100 | $109 | $120 | $134 |
| 8.5% | $77.76 | $83.06 | $89.23 | $96.52 | $105 |
| 9.5% | $66.66 | $70.55 | $75.00 | $80.11 | $86.07 |
