Household & Personal Products · Cincinnati, OH
Delayed quote: Sep 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Household & Personal Products · Cincinnati, OH
Delayed quote: Sep 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
TGM's two-stage DCF values The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) between $88.71 and $170.03 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $116.23. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$143.00 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +6.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $88.71 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $116.23 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $170.03 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $215.26 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$143.00
Market-Implied Growth
+6.5%/yr
vs +0.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$88.71 – $170.03
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $15.0B · 2.38B shares · net debt $24.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$116.23
-18.7% vs $143.00
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $143.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $153 | $173 | $200 | $238 | $294 |
| 6.5% | $121 | $133 | $148 | $167 | $193 |
| 7.5% | $98.70 | $107 | $116 | $128 | $142 |
| 8.5% | $83.11 | $88.70 | $95.21 | $103 | $112 |
| 9.5% | $71.41 | $75.51 | $80.20 | $85.59 | $91.87 |