PagerDuty, Inc. (PD) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for PD
Even the conservative scenario ($19.21) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$8.56 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -6.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.8% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.8%/yr | 9.8% | $19.21 |
| Base case | 16.8%/yr | 8.8% | $25.87 |
| Optimistic | 19.8%/yr | 7.8% | $35.71 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $37.39 | |
Current Price
$8.56
Market-Implied Growth
-6.9%/yr
vs +16.8% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$25.87
model output — not a price target
PD DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $86.4M · 0.09B shares · net debt $158.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$43.89
+412.8% vs $8.56
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $8.56; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $58.69 | $63.56 | $69.56 | $77.14 | $87.01 |
| 7.8% | $47.42 | $50.54 | $54.24 | $58.72 | $64.23 |
| 8.8% | $39.34 | $41.45 | $43.89 | $46.76 | $50.17 |
| 9.8% | $33.28 | $34.77 | $36.47 | $38.41 | $40.66 |
| 10.8% | $28.59 | $29.68 | $30.90 | $32.27 | $33.83 |
About PagerDuty, Inc.
PagerDuty, Inc. offers a digital platform designed for operations management, with its reach extending throughout the United States, Japan, and other international regions. This advanced platform is capable of receiving digital signals from virtually any software-powered system or device. It then leverages robust machine learning capabilities to discern relationships, process incoming data, and forecast potential openings or issues. The company caters to a diverse range of industries, including software and technology, telecommunications, retail, travel and hospitality, media and entertainment, and financial services. PagerDuty, Inc. was established in 2009 and is based in San Francisco, California.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- CEO
- Jennifer G. Tejada