TGM's two-stage DCF values PagerDuty, Inc. (PD) between $19.54 and $36.51 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $26.37. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$11.91 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -0.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.8%/yr | 9.7% | $19.54 |
| Base case | 16.8%/yr | 8.7% | $26.37 |
| Optimistic | 19.8%/yr | 7.7% | $36.51 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $39.10 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$11.91
Market-Implied Growth
-0.8%/yr
vs +16.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$19.54 – $36.51
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $86.4M · 0.09B shares · net debt $158.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$26.37
+121.3% vs $11.91
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $11.91; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $33.41 | $36.69 | $40.76 | $45.92 | $52.68 |
| 7.7% | $27.37 | $29.56 | $32.17 | $35.33 | $39.24 |
| 8.7% | $23.03 | $24.57 | $26.37 | $28.48 | $30.99 |
| 9.7% | $19.75 | $20.90 | $22.19 | $23.68 | $25.41 |
| 10.7% | $17.20 | $18.07 | $19.05 | $20.15 | $21.40 |
