TGM's two-stage DCF values PagerDuty, Inc. (PD) between $17.66 and $32.72 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $23.76. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$14.95 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.9% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.2%/yr | 9.9% | $17.66 |
| Base case | 15.2%/yr | 8.9% | $23.76 |
| Optimistic | 18.2%/yr | 7.9% | $32.72 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $31.21 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$14.95
Market-Implied Growth
+4.8%/yr
vs +15.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$17.66 – $32.72
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $86.4M · 0.09B shares · net debt $158.3M
Estimated Fair Value
$23.76
+58.9% vs $14.95
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $14.95; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $29.90 | $32.71 | $36.15 | $40.47 | $46.06 |
| 7.9% | $24.65 | $26.55 | $28.80 | $31.50 | $34.81 |
| 8.9% | $20.84 | $22.19 | $23.76 | $25.58 | $27.75 |
| 9.9% | $17.94 | $18.95 | $20.09 | $21.39 | $22.90 |
| 10.9% | $15.67 | $16.44 | $17.31 | $18.28 | $19.38 |
