TGM's two-stage DCF values Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) between $91.01 and $176.76 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $124.97. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$113.55 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.2% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 9.6%/yr | 9.2% | $91.01 |
| Base case | 12.6%/yr | 8.2% | $124.97 |
| Optimistic | 15.6%/yr | 7.2% | $176.76 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $171.13 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$113.55
Market-Implied Growth
+10.4%/yr
vs +15.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$91.01 – $176.76
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PAYX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.7B · 0.36B shares · net debt $3.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$124.97
+10.1% vs $113.55
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $113.55; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $161 | $179 | $201 | $231 | $272 |
| 7.2% | $130 | $141 | $155 | $172 | $194 |
| 8.2% | $108 | $116 | $125 | $136 | $149 |
| 9.2% | $91.67 | $97.38 | $104 | $112 | $120 |
| 10.2% | $79.26 | $83.55 | $88.38 | $93.88 | $100 |
